Thursday, October 31, 2013

Grimes 2nd Law - The News Formula

Kyle Wintersteen at Guns & Ammo on  has a interesting article about why the media covers some violent crimes (13 Navy Yard killings vs. 13 Chicago school yard woundings) and not others.  Is it because they are biased, lazy, or affected by other factors.  In the article he refers to media Prof. Charlotte Grimes, Knight Chair in Political Reporting at Syracuse University’s S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications. She has developed a formula that relates many factors common to news items and provides "a common sense explanation of what the media considers newsworthy, as well as a sobering look at today’s fragmented information world."

See Prof. Grimes here:  charlotte-grimes

Grimes' Second Law:  The News Formula
N / Di(prx) x I x Du x T x R x P x Cf/Cr x Ch x Hypcrsy x U x Factor X = News Value
Variables:
N = number of people affected by event, issue, policy
Di = the physical distance those people are from the news organization's home community—Baghdad and Syracuse, for example. Also considered the PRX or PROXIMITY to the news organization’s home community.  Or the emotional or psychological distance between the subject and the reader, say, a welfare mother and an affluent suburbanite. The closer the event or person is, geographically or emotionally, the higher the news value. 
I = the intensity of the effect, such as death being a more intense effect than injury, or injury more intense than damage to property
Du = the duration of the effect, such as the longer-lasting effect of an atomic bomb or tsunami, compared to a temporarily closed bridge
T = the timeliness of the event–today, yesterday, last year
R= the rarity of the event, issue, policy. An atomic bombing is rarer than a hurricane; a hurricane is rarer than a thunderstorm; a "First" – as in "first Hispanic as U. S. Attorney General" or "first woman
or African American as Secretary of State" – has high rarity value
P = the prominence of the people involved, as a plane crash in which one of the passengers is the president compared to a senator
Cf/ Cr = the conflict or controversy surrounding the event
Ch = the change, and its degree, from the usual or normal
Hypcrsy = hypocrisy – people saying one thing/doing another or contradicting their public images – always has high new value, especially for politicians
U = the usefulness to the audience of the information
Factor X = such variables as sex, money, children, pets, human interest, a slow news day when nothing else is going on, or an editor's whim

ATI Moving to South Carolina

Elections have consequences.  We hear that a lot.  One consequence of electing Governor Ed Cuomo in New York State, plus of lot of liberal legislators, is the SAFE Act which imposes draconian limits on firearms.  The cost is hundreds of jobs.  From the blog Albany Watch:  Firearms-maker-leaves-rochester

Firearms maker leaves Rochester to “a state that is friendly to the Second Amendment rights of the people”

29 October 2013, 10:15 am by in Other - No Comments
American Tactical Imports is leaving Rochester for South Carolina, blaming the move in part on the state’s gun-control law passed in January.
“As one of the gun industry’s top importers and manufactures of firearms and firearm related accessories, ATI’s decision to relocate is two-fold,” the company said in a news release yesterday. “ATI believes it is imperative that a firearms importer and manufacturer do business within a state that is friendly to the Second Amendment rights of the people.
“It is also important that ATI be close to the port-of-entry into the country for several of their imported products. The relocation to South Carolina ensures that both of these factors are met.”
It was unclear how many jobs will be lost in Rochester because of the move, but the company said the relocation will have a $2.7 million impact on the Summerville, S.C., community and create an estimated 117 new jobs in the area. Summerville is near Charleston, thus providing port access.
The move is slated for next month. The company is receiving tax incentives to leave, as well.
“This move to South Carolina will help ensure a solid foundation for our company,” said Tony DiChario, the company’s president, in a statement. “The relocation process will be smooth and we have ensured that the process will not affect customer service, product distribution or any other segment of our business. The people of South Carolina have welcomed ATI with open arms and we are excited about making our new corporate home there.”
Rockland County-based Kahr Arms announced in July it was leaving New York for Pennsylvania, blaming the move on New York’s gun-control law.
Remington Arms, based in the Mohawk Valley, has also dealt with questions about whether it would move out of the state and has been wooed by other states. But the company hasn’t said it would leave.
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is quoted in the press release touting the ATI move.
“Today’s announcement is another testament that South Carolina is a destination for job-creating investments,” Haley said in a statement. “We celebrate American Tactical’s decision to invest in Dorchester County.”
ATI says it is one of the nation’s top importers and manufactures of firearm-related products.

Friday, October 25, 2013

Conversation or Confrontation?

I have noticed that much of the difficulty in having a productive conversation these days, especially on politics, is that people talk AT each other instead of WITH each other.  They strive to make their pet points and to "win" the argument, instead of finding the common ground on which they do agree, or the basic facts that are not in dispute, and then moving forward towards a solution or conclusion.

Several friends discussed this lately and I have paraphrased some of what they said, because it is well spoken to explain the problem and a solution:

  • Friend 1:  Regardless of the persons I meet, I always learn from diversity if I am paying attention.  You want to withdraw from political wrangling? That's an understandable position; it can be stimulating and fun, but it can wear on one, too. I too withdraw at times, to rest my mind, and clear my head.
  • Friend 2:  In church, I have met a fellow whose political convictions are not mine. But the sense of brotherly love that we feel for each other from the beginning seems to mean that we can actually discuss the positions as ideas without the bashing emotional baggage. Curiously, his wife is more conservative.  But basically we enjoy each other's company at a level deeper than the politics.  I don't agree with his politics but it doesn't keep me from having spontaneous love. I enjoy the company of several persons who are horrified that my wife and I are Republicans and have attended Tea Party Rallies and campaigned with them - and support Tea Party gambits to save the country, according to the Tea Party vision of the Good for the country. For the most part, I think if I have an opportunity to just hang with people in some kind of normal non-thinking socialization paradigm, the common family reality of humanity trumps the political divisions. It just so happens that we don't have that situation. There is a degree of difficulty in our relationship that might be remedied by physical propinquity, but we don't have that. Physical propinquity is not a universal balm because for the most part it seems that my sister and I are better off not being in each other presence. Maybe before one of us dies, that can change but for now it seems to be the practical truth. In  my readings in philosophy, I have dimly learned that the Greeks considered philosophy to be the effort to move from opinions to KNOWLEDGE. There are seemingly endless questions that emerge from a definition like that -- especially if we apply it to contemporary American Political Problems. Socrates' claim was that he knew that he DID NOT KNOW.  His primary engagement was with folks who believe that they DID KNOW.  Does REAL KNOWLEDGE exist? This is just one of those seemingly unlimited questions that arise in the philosophic approach to things.
  • Me:  Well said.
  • Friend 2:  We had an luncheon event at which this gentleman was present. We adjourned to Peet's for robust discussion. One thing I think we agreed on - commit to intellectual integrity at the cost of losing arguments and being humiliated.   But if our foundation is friendship and quest for truth, there is little cost to admitting -- hmm -- I was wrong about that. Or -- being able to confess honestly -- My feeling is that your opinion has some defect, but at the present time I cannot articulate what it is. With time, study and thought I might be able to rebut your opinion or come to an acceptance of its truth. When we are engaged in a hostile dynamic, you cannot admit weakness and fault because it will be used to destroy you, unfortunately.
  • Me:  More well said. Can I copy it?

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Police State Alive and Well in Our Nation's Capital

Do we live in a police state?  Judge for yourself.  From the Washington Time's Emily Miller:

D.C. businessman faces two years in jail for unregistered ammunition, brass casing

Mugshot Mark Witaschek
Mark Witaschek, a successful financial adviser with no criminal record, is facing two years in prison for possession of unregistered ammunition after D.C. police raided his house looking for guns. Mr. Witaschek has never had a firearm in the city, but he is being prosecuted to the full extent of the law. The trial starts on Nov. 4.
The police banged on the front door of Mr. Witaschek’s Georgetown home at 8:20 p.m. on July 7, 2012, to execute a search warrant for “firearms and ammunition … gun cleaning equipment, holsters, bullet holders and ammunition receipts.”


Mr. Witaschek’s 14-year-old daughter let inside some 30 armed officers in full tactical gear.
D.C. law requires residents to register every firearm with the police, and only registered gun owners can possess ammunition, which includes spent shells and casings. The maximum penalty for violating these laws is a $1,000 fine and a year in jail.
Police based their search on a charge made by Mr. Witaschek’s estranged wife, who had earlier convinced a court clerk to issue a temporary restraining order against her husband for threatening her with a gun, although a judge later found the charge to be without merit.
After entering the house, the police immediately went upstairs, pointed guns at the heads of Mr. Witaschek and his girlfriend, Bonnie Harris, and demanded they surrender, facedown and be handcuffed.
In recalling what followed, Mr. Witaschek became visibly emotional in describing how the police treated him, Ms. Harris and the four children in the house.
His 16-year-old son was in the shower when the police arrived. “They used a battering ram to bash down the bathroom door and pull him out of the shower, naked,” said his father. “The police put all the children together in a room, while we were handcuffed upstairs. I could hear them crying, not knowing what was happening.”


Police spokesman Gwendolyn Crump would not provide further information on the events in this case.
The police shut down the streets for blocks and spent more than two hours going over every inch of his house. “They tossed the place,” said Mr. Witaschek. He provided photos that he took of his home after the raid to document the damage, which he estimated at $10,000.
The police found no guns in the house, but did write on the warrant that four items were discovered: “One live round of 12-gauge shotgun ammunition,” which was an inoperable shell that misfired during a hunt years earlier. Mr. Witaschek had kept it as a souvenir. “One handgun holster” was found, which is perfectly legal.
“One expended round of .270 caliber ammunition,” which was a spent brass casing. The police uncovered “one box of Knight bullets for reloading.” These are actually not for reloading, but are used in antique-replica, single-shot, muzzle-loading rifles.
This was the second police search of his home. Exactly one month earlier, Mr. Witaschek allowed members of the “Gun Recovery Unit” access to search without a warrant because he thought he had nothing to hide.
After about an hour and a half, the police found one box of Winchester .40 caliber ammunition, one gun-cleaning kit (fully legal) and a Civil War-era Colt antique revolver that Mr. Witaschek kept on his office desk. The police seized the Colt even though antique firearms are legal and do not have to be registered.
Mr. Witaschek is a gun owner and an avid hunter. However, he stores his firearms at the home of his sister, Sylvia Witaschek, in suburban Arlington, Va.
Two weeks after the June raid, D.C. police investigators went to his sister’s house — unaccompanied by Virginia police and without a warrant — and asked to “view” the firearms, according to a police report. She refused. The next day, the D.C. police returned to her house with the Arlington County police and served her with a criminal subpoena.
The Office of Attorney General of the District of Columbia Irvin Nathan signed an affidavit on Aug. 21, 2012, in support of a warrant to arrest Mr. Witaschek. A spokesman for Mr. Nathan would not comment on a pending case.
Mr. Witaschek went to the police station on Aug. 24 at 5:30 a.m. to turn himself in, but was not transferred to central booking until 11:30 a.m., at which time he was told it was too late to be arraigned that day. He spent the night in jail and was released the next day at 10 a.m.
Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier reserves such harsh tactics for ordinary citizens. When NBC News anchor David Gregory violated the gun-registration law last year by wielding an illegal 30-round magazine on live television, he was not arrested.
Mr. Nathan also gave Mr. Gregory a pass, writing that prosecuting him “would not promote public safety.”
Mr. Nathan, who is unelected, showed no such leniency to Mr. Witaschek. In September 2012, the attorney general offered Mr. Witaschek a deal to plead guilty to one charge of unlawful possession of ammunition with a penalty of a year of probation, a $500 fine and a contribution to a victims’ fund.
Mr. Witaschek turned down the offer. “It’s the principle,” he told me.
To increase the pressure a year later, Mr. Nathan tacked on an additional charge in August of illegal ammunition from the first, warrantless search. Mr. Witaschek chose to accept the risk of prison time by going to trial instead of pleading guilty.
The firearms laws in places such as the District of Columbia, Chicago, New York, Connecticut and New Jersey do nothing to reduce violence, but merely infringe on the Second Amendment rights of the law-abiding.
However, if these laws are going to be enforced, the police and government must treat everyone equally.
The charges against Mr. Witaschek should be dropped.
Emily Miller is a senior editor of opinion for The Washington Times and author of “Emily Gets Her Gun” (Regnery, 2013).