Climate: Sun or CO2?

A friend sent me a provocative link about new research reported in Nature from CERN:  New-evidence-debunks-manmade-global-warming.  It quotes two Financial Post articles by Lawrence Solomon, although it has been well and truly cherry picked to prove a point.  So I looked into it a little further, and came up with...maybe-it-is  or  maybe-it-isn't.

First, I think Solomon’s missive that “The science is now all-but-settled on global warming” as stated in the article seems a little premature.   However, it appears that a good case can be made that nucleation by cosmic rays is a real phenomenon but not necessarily that it is a very important contributor.

A little more searching finds some info on the CERN CLOUD experiment.  Here is official CERN announcement: CLOUD_SI_press-briefing_29JUL11  Note that they say more work must be done to identify vapors in the lower atmosphere that also contribute to nucleation.

Here are Solomon’s Financial Post articles: 

Part 1:  Lawrence-solomon-science-now-settled   Be sure to click on the Hidden Graph link.

Part 2:  Lawrence-solomon-our-cosmic-climate/#more-8257

I find it interesting that many people have been proposing to inject salt particles or sulfur particles into the upper atmosphere to promote cloud formation, and thus reflect sunlight in order to reduce temperature rise.  And of course volcanoes inject lots of ammonia into the atmosphere.  So the nucleating vapors used here are similar.

BUT, refer to this link contained in a comment to Solomon’s articles:   http://mediamatters.org/research/201108310023    Now, I know this is from Media Matters, whose main goal is usually to make the conservative media look stupid, but the quotes from reputable people and Jasper Kirkby, the main scientist behind the research, provide a strong caution about how to interpret this new research. 

I think what has happened here is that the press has flown off into the sun, and both sides have had their wings singed by their overarching ambition to prove the other guy irrefutably wrong.  As  Pat Robertson says in the video, “Don’t get stampeded by the latest theory.”

The science battle may be getting closer to being won, but the political battle has a long way to go.  Let’s keep watching.